Insurers pledged 12,189 more wildfire-zone policies. Only half backed it with a real growth commitment.
California's Sustainable Insurance Strategy trades insurers new rate-filing tools for a promise to keep writing coverage in wildfire-distressed areas. Consumer Watchdog and the state's own insurance department don't agree on how much of that promise has actually been kept — and neither has published a verified count of policies written. This page tracks the gap between what's been pledged and what's been confirmed, and updates as new figures come out.
Last checked: September 27, 2026What insurers actually agreed to.
Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara's Sustainable Insurance Strategy lets carriers use forward-looking catastrophe models and reinsurance costs in their rate filings — both off-limits in California before 2025 — in exchange for a binding commitment to keep writing in wildfire-distressed areas.
The commitment insurers sign up for
To use the new rate-filing tools, a carrier must maintain at least 85% of its statewide market share in distressed wildfire areas — or, for smaller carriers, grow its writings there by at least 5%. The California Department of Insurance says carriers including Mercury and CSAA have announced plans to increase writings under the revised framework.
What that's worth so far
Consumer Watchdog's 12,189-policy estimate and the $571 million in requested rate increases are both counts of what's been asked for or announced — not policies confirmed as written. Only 5 of the 10 insurers requesting increases tied theirs to an actual growth commitment; the other 5 asked for more money without a matching promise to write more coverage.
Why no one can verify it yet
Neither side has published the underlying numbers. CDI has publicly disputed Consumer Watchdog's analysis as incomplete, and Consumer Watchdog's estimate isn't an official regulatory figure either — see the dispute laid out below.
Two sides, two different numbers, no public reconciliation yet.
This is the part most coverage of the story skips. Both figures below are real and both are publicly attributed — they just aren't the same kind of number, and no one has reconciled them.
| Source | What they say |
|---|---|
| Consumer Watchdog | Estimates insurers have pledged 12,189 additional policies in wildfire-distressed areas since January 2025 — the advocacy group's own tally, built from public filings and insurer statements, not from a regulator-audited count. |
| CA Dept. of Insurance | Disputes Consumer Watchdog's analysis as "incomplete and premature," names Mercury and CSAA (among unnamed "other companies") as carriers that have announced plans to increase writings, and says it plans to release its own data on insurer commitments and market results — not yet published as of this page's last check. |
What's changed since the last check.
This page is a tracker, not a one-time post — it gets rechecked as CDI, Consumer Watchdog, or the FAIR Plan publish new figures.
First published. Figures as reported: 12,189 pledged policies (Consumer Watchdog), $571M in requested rate increases across 10 insurers with 5 tying it to growth commitments (CDI-adjacent reporting), and 696,562 FAIR Plan policies in force (+8% since Sept. 2025, +157% since Sept. 2022). CDI's own promised data on insurer commitments has not yet been published.
Budget for the FAIR Plan until the pledges are actually verified.
Pledges aren't policies in hand. Until a regulator publishes a verified count, the safest planning assumption is that today's coverage picture — not the promised one — is what you can rely on this year.
Know what the FAIR Plan actually costs right now
See the FAIR Plan + DIC wrap cost guide or run your own premium estimate before you need it under time pressure.
Re-check the standard market on every renewal anyway
Even unverified, the pledges point at real movement in some carriers' underwriting — it's worth re-shopping each renewal rather than assuming last year's "no" still holds. See the full 2026 wildfire insurance rules for the moratorium and mitigation-discount protections that apply while you do.
Know your notice-period runway
If you've already received a non-renewal notice, use the deadline calculator to see exactly how much time you have to work through both the standard market and the FAIR Plan.
About this tracker.
What is California's Sustainable Insurance Strategy?
A 2025 regulatory framework from Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara. Insurers get to use forward-looking catastrophe models and reinsurance costs in their rate filings — both previously off-limits in California — in exchange for a binding commitment to keep writing policies in wildfire-distressed areas: at least 85% of their statewide market share there, or a 5% increase for smaller carriers.
How many policies have insurers actually pledged to write?
Consumer Watchdog estimates roughly 12,189 additional policies in wildfire-distressed areas since January 2025. That figure is Consumer Watchdog's own tally, not one published by the insurers or by the California Department of Insurance.
Have insurers actually delivered on these pledges yet?
That part is unverified. Ten homeowners insurers requested about $571 million in combined rate increases under the new rules, but only five of those ten tied the increase to an actual commitment to write more policies. CDI says carriers including Mercury and CSAA have announced plans to increase writings, but CDI has also disputed Consumer Watchdog's analysis as "incomplete and premature" and says it plans to release its own data — not yet published as of this page's last check.
Is the FAIR Plan still growing despite these pledges?
Yes. The California FAIR Plan reached 696,562 policies as of June 2026 — up 8% from September 2025 and up 157% since September 2022 — covering roughly $768 billion in exposure. Growth in the FAIR Plan and insurer pledges to write more coverage are both happening at once; the pledges haven't yet been enough to shrink the state's insurer of last resort.
Why doesn't this page name which specific insurers met their commitments?
Because that data doesn't publicly exist yet. Neither Consumer Watchdog nor CDI has published a per-insurer count of policies actually written under the strategy. Only two carriers, Mercury and CSAA, have been named at all, and only as companies CDI says have announced plans to increase writings — not as companies with a verified, completed count. This page will update with individual figures once a regulator or the insurers themselves publish them.